“As useless as mammary glands on a boar hog”
Are Passenger Trains Really That Useless?
James J. Hill, visionary founder of the Great Northern Railway, once said that he didn’t plan much passenger service. “Passenger trains are like tits on a boar, neither ornamental nor useful,” he’s reported as saying. This week I received a communication saying that Hill was right and the Colorado Dept. of Transportation (CDOT) should just advise the Division of Transit & Rail to back off on passenger rail. Nothing like being challenged by a reader to get me writing!
Will I be Lonely On My Train Trip This Week?
My friend also tells me that I’ll “Probably be the only one on the train between here and Grand Junction this week.” This week I’ll be taking a train (AMTRAK California Zephyr) to the western slope for a meeting. That train runs 80% full so I won’t be lonely. My fare will be $66.30 one way. That’s a little cheaper than I could drive that same distance (if I figure the $.50 a mile IRS allows) and almost exactly what I’d pay on Greyhound Bus. However, I’ll spend more time on the train even if it’s on time. That’s even a little more time than on the bus depending on a bunch of road factors. My friend argues that trains are subsidized, but that’s a silly argument. Taxpayer subsidy for driving my car west on I-70 would be slightly greater per mile than the subsidy for taking the AMTRAK. The gas tax I pay at the pump will never pay for the interstate highway system, CDOT, state patrol, and on and on. The bean counters have told us about all of this hidden cost of driving our flivvers down the road from the start. That’s all beside the point James J. Hill was making though. He just didn’t think passenger trains could ever pay. In 2010 it looks like he was wrong about that.
Can Colorado Grab The New Technologies?
It’s the job of CDOT to position Colorado to take advantage of new rail technologies and funding in the future. There are some quite exciting new technologies coming along the rails. The initial investment is big, but the pay-offs would be bigger. These days CDOT is on board with a rail planning process they call “Context Sensitive Solutions.” CSS is jargon for getting all of the stakeholders together and finding a shared vision for transit in fairly large areas of Colorado. That includes bus, rail, freight rail, and passenger cars.
The new rail technologies are exciting. The Europeans have generally moved to magnetic levitation for their trains and there’s no reason, other than money, why we couldn’t do that here. Maglev trains have rails for guidance, but suck up power from a central track like the inter-urban cars of old. In one sense they run on a curtain of air. This allows them to go up mountainsides in Switzerland and Germany, for instance, at 7% grades.
What The Studies Show
Probably the biggest rail passenger study in Colorado History was recently released by the Rocky Mountain Rail Authority. It shows some surprising results. In five years of project development and six years of design, we could have high speed trains going from DIA to downtown Denver and on to Colorado Springs. Assuming passengers would be willing to pay a reasonable fee, generally thought to be around $32 to ride this route, it would turn a positive operating ratio. Even if existing diesel rains were employed, the operating ratio would be 0.64. That would mean somewhat slower 30-50 mph average operating speeds. If high speed maglev rail were employed, that goes up to 1.88 and speeds averaging 60-70 mph. That would need no governmental subsidy. Ticket costs for an I-70 alternative would be somewhat higher, generally estimated at $40 from Denver to Vail. Again this would turn a positive operating ratio.
Will We Get Out Of Our Cars?
My acquaintance tells me he still won’t take the train from downtown Denver to Vail even if it only takes the estimated two hours. He seems to like sitting in the weekend traffic jams on I-70. If he lived in Fort Collins he might reconsider. Assuming a fare of $48 to the ski areas and a train time of two and half hours, he might reconsider. In any case he’ll still be sitting there in the I-70 traffic for some time to come. Any of these rail plans take a dozen years to build. DIA to Copper Mountain would be a 14 year proposition.
A Boon For Gamers
All of these scenarios envision extending track to Black Hawk, where there’s easy bus transport on up the short distance to Central City. With 18 round trips a day in the rail plan, folks planning on having a good time up here could almost decide to go on the whim of the moment. The fares normally discussed to make the operating revenue bulge would be $11. That’s more than the money-back bus, but then trains run even in the snow and offer many amenities en route.
Where Will We Get The Money?
If we decide to build all of these big railroad dreams, what could it cost? It’s no small number. Probably over 3 billion (that’s with a B) dollars would complete the whole system. James J. Hill might be saying that he told us so. On the other hand California and Ohio have gotten larger sums from the federal government to build their project ready rail plans. Our own CDOT is not there yet with anything rail project ready, but work does continue.
Political Will Is Needed
As with so much else in life, a coalition of supporters is needed – that is if we’re ever to re-build our Colorado rail system. The economic benefits would be considerable. Some of the analysts talk of $33 billion in benefits to Colorado. All of these estimates are based on gasoline costs staying more or less where they are now. If those go through the roof an analysis for rail becomes even more favorable.
More Useful Than Mammary Glands On A Boar Hog
The passenger train is simply more useful than tits on a boar. We may see a new age of passenger rail. That’s the analysis of the Rocky Mountain Rail Authority.