The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler

Review by R.D. Freeman

1/19/2006 - “This exhibit portrays the age of suburbia” explains the museum tour guide. “People in this time lived in sprawling, drab, uniform box-like homes and ate meals in plastic boxes from what they called ‘fast-food’ restaurants set in ‘strip-malls.’ Suburbanites never walked anywhere.”

  “Was there something wrong with their legs?” a young boy asks.

  “Not exactly. The Suburbanites drove everywhere in cars called SUVs which were powered by something called gas.”

  “What happened to these people?” the boy wonders.

  “They’re extinct now. When they used up all the gas, their suburban lifestyle crumbled.”

  The boy stares wide-eyed at the exhibit. “Suburbia sure was ugly.”

  If James Howard Kunstler is correct in his diagnosis, Suburbia, and perhaps the nation that built it, is doomed and may only be remembered in museums and books- if museums and books survive ‘The Long Emergency,’ he predicts. Kunstler’s theory is that the age of cheap oil is coming to an end and America stands completely unprepared.

  We had warnings in the energy crisis of the 1970s, but long lines and high prices at the pumps were soon forgotten in the glut of cheap oil prices in the '80s and '90s that led to our current landscape of urban (and suburban) sprawl. The author claims that the US economy of the last few decades survived (and thrived) on building the vast suburbs that now cover a great deal of the country. Suburbia, he says, is “the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world” (248). Millions of miles of highways and cheap housing made it possible for Americans to live outside of cities where most jobs are located, commuting long distances to work. In essence, America fell into a naive, dreamy stupor; upon waking up, we remember that oil supplies are limited, that gas prices will not stay under two dollars a gallon and that we are dangerously dependant on foreign oil. Even worse, all that driving pollutes the earth and probably contributes to global warming, which could result in all kinds of frightening consequences, all of which Kunstler describes in gruesome detail.

  One might argue that we have known all these dangers for a long time and the sky is not falling; the country seems to be chugging along just fine, the economy is rebounding, etc. “Don’t be so naïve,” would be Kunstler’s response. Oil is a nonrenewable substance and it’s running out. What remains in the ground is more difficult to reach and harder to extract, thus more expensive. And most all of the remaining oil sits under Arab nations with which we have, at best, strained relations. Most frightening is the potential for wars over oil. Imagine a world where desperate nations fight over the last oil supplies, an ironic situation since modern warfare runs on oil- a lot of it. If the current war with Iraq is any part about securing oil supplies, one has to wonder how much oil was burned in fighting this war?

  Kunstler paints a bleak picture indeed, and it gets worse when he couples oil depletion with other related problems like global warming, water and natural gas shortages and growing demand for oil from nations like China and India. Hurricane Katrina may have provided a glimpse of the problems that Kunstler predicts will become permanent. Gas shot up above three dollars a gallon, causing shortages in some areas and some businesses even closed down. Some companies, particularly those that are transportation-based, can’t survive if gas prices stay high. The trucking industry, taxis, airlines, delivery (UPS, FED-EX, etc.) and so on. Fortunately, prices dropped quickly enough to rescue our economy, but what if diminishing supplies raised gas prices back above $3 a gallon? The consequences are endless, yet fairly predictable.

  Some argue that by the time oil runs out, we will have fully developed alternative fuels and energy sources. That’s not likely, in the author’s opinion. Today’s hybrids still run partly on gas and they require gas and oil to build the cars, ship them from factories, replace parts, etc. And the biggest gas burners like airplanes and big-rig trucks will likely never be able to run on anything but gas. Hydro-power offers a clean solution for producing electricity, but it requires a large water source and current stations are badly in need of repair. Also, hydro-power only produces enough electricity for smaller regions, not enough for large cities. Nuclear Energy, according to the author, is perhaps our best energy source in a post-oil age, but fears of terrorist attacks on a nuclear plant or any kind of accident means that no one wants a nuclear energy plant near where they live. Solar and Wind power can power our homes, but probably not our cars.

  A weakness of The Long Emergency lies in the author’s sometimes stubborn pessimism about the future. In reviewing alternative energy and fuel sources, for instance, Kunstler seems to focus on ‘worst case scenarios’ an awful lot, in spite of some positive signs that the US is moving towards a less oil reliant society. And alternative fuel technologies will likely improve with use and time, trial and error. While he might admit that is the case, Kunstler would likely argue that it’s too little too late. That remains to be seen.

  So what happens to the United States - a country that more than any other relies on oil (cheap gas) to function - if oil runs out? Anything from a drastic remaking of the nation to a virtual collapse into chaos, says the author. Every area of commerce depends on oil: agriculture, industry, transportation, military, construction, and even banking and the financial markets hinge on the ready supply and low price of oil.

  Kunstler predicts that some regions of the US will fare better than others, with the old South and the Southwest in the worst predicament, while the Northeast and Northwest might be better equipped to adapt. Cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, sitting in desert regions, will be the first to go since they lack water and agricultural resources. Even if these cities could not run air conditioning in the summer, they would become vast ghost towns. The Northeast holds advantages like extensive rivers (that can generate hydro-power), great lakes (fresh water) and adequate farmlands and forests. The Northwest receives plenty of rainfall and is blessed with fertile soil and a fishing industry, too.

  Unfortunately, the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain region face great challenges in the so-called Long Emergency. The plains are naturally grasslands that have been converted to farmland with the aid of extensive irrigation, fertilizer and heavy gas-burning farming equipment. This will prove too costly in an oil crisis coupled with water shortages. Indeed, this fate already envelops a great deal of the plains states. And in the Rocky Mountain region, many of us drive long distances from our rural (and mountain area) homes to jobs in the cities. That becomes a greater problem as oil runs out and prices soar.

  Can we avoid this fate? Maybe. The author points out that we have been slow to change and may find that it is too late. Interestingly, America may resemble early America - a nation of farmers, small businesses and small communities. One hundred years ago, about 30% of Americans were farmers; now, less than 2% are farmers. First industrialization and then globalization destroyed small communities until we became “an amazing panorama of ruined towns and cities with broken institutions and demoralized populations - surrounded by Wal-Marts and Target Stores” (187). In the future, Kunstler predicts Globalization will once again become localization. We will have to re-educate, re-train and remake ourselves. He suggests we look at the Amish as one example of a sustainable community. They have retained the practical skills needed in a post oil world. They know farming, carpentry, and other such practical skills, and they don’t use machines. Furthermore, the Amish live in smaller, close-knit, interdependent communities with mentoring and apprenticing roles well established. They can survive without gas; they already do. But could the rest of us survive this way? If James Kunstler is correct, we might have to.