Clear and present danger

Cece Miller

1/19/2006 - What is it about the month of January - we make resolutions we don’t keep, we realize life passes more quickly, we tend to take things for granted because it is the start to a new year. We believe the weather will be cold and snowy because of the Stock Show’s annual appearance. Not all these things are reality.

  Last week, the second week in 2006, wildfires broke out in three different areas of the state. The first in the south, east of Pueblo, burning several homes as it raced through the area. The second fire was near Carter Lake outside Berthoud. The third was closer to home - Highway 72 and Highway 93 in Jefferson County, across from the site of the old Rocky Flats weapons plant. The first two fires resulted in an unprecedented fire ban declared by Governor Owens on state lands below 8000 feet.

  There are records of wildfire in January, but most are confined to small grass fires. This year is different. The three fires combined consumed over 7000 acres, 2700 in Jefferson County alone. The fires have burned in areas filled with dead fuel beds normally too wet to burn this time of year. The recent warm weather patterns have been enjoyed by some, but for firefighters they are seen as a barometer of things to come.

  During a typical wildfire, the fire usually “goes to bed” at night when the cooler temperatures and higher humidity arrive. Not so with the recent fires. Nighttime fire behavior has been described as extreme in fire terms. With the approach of cold fronts, the winds continue to howl at night, feeding the flames, and the warm nighttime temperatures also aid in the advance of the fire. The Plainview Fire is an example—it started out small on Tuesday evening and when fire agencies in Gilpin County received a request to respond, the fire was up to 50 acres at 2:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning. By 6:00 a.m., the fire had exploded to 2700 acres fanned by 20—30 mile per hour winds and gusts up to 60 miles per hour.

  Current snow pack in the northern and central mountains is very good, leading to the misconception that all is well for the Front Range. The last significant moisture received on the Front Range was in October 2005, according to a report on Colorado Fire Potential Outlook, January 12, 2006. One only needs to attempt to snowshoe near the Moffat Tunnel to experience the dismal snow pack. Many areas usually covered in snow are bare.

  Fires this time of year are most likely human-caused—arson, cigarettes, vehicles, controlled burns getting out of control. The Plainview Fire in Jefferson County is under investigation and several “people of interest” are being interviewed.

  A recent weather prediction used by fire services shows Gilpin County has experienced above normal temperatures. On the precipitation side, the county is split between just below normal and normal. This does not bode well for fire danger. The 3-month outlook for precipitation developed by NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostic Center suggests “little change over the next few months with odds leaning towards below average precipitation over eastern Colorado and above average for the northern and central mountains and the northwest part of the state.”

  The bottom line is we must be vigilant. Be aware of your surroundings and keep a list ready of items to take in case of evacuation. Don’t be complacent. It can happen here.